On Friday we did a dry lab, and here is what we have done and some analysis.
The purpose of this lab is using mark-recapture method to estimate the population of the pasta in a bag just to model how wildlife researchers did when they estimated the size of population in surveyed area.
Here is the materials we used. A package of macaroni and some colorful markers.
The first step of this lab was to "capture " a sample of population from the bag.
For calculation, we also recorded the number of this sample of population(M), which is 31.
Then we used the marker to mark the captured population.
For the first trial, we chose purple.
Making sure our way of marking is recognizable.(We colored the whole thing.)
After that, we released the captured population(M) back to the bag, and kept shaking it until they were randomly mixed with the general population.
Then, we took a second random sample of pasta(n) and recorded how many of them were marked(m). The data n and m were also written down for calculation which was 4 and 76.
Finally, we were able to calculate the estimated population size of the general population(N) using out recorded data M, m and n.
Here is the details of our calculation.
We used the formula of mark-recapture method.
number of individuals caught & marked in first sample(M)
total population size(N)
= number of marked individuals recaptured(m)
total number in second sample(n)
To get the value of N, the formula can be transformed as
N=(Mn)/m
Due to our data recorded, the calculation would be
N=(31*76)/4
N=589
After this, we did another 2 trials in the same way, and got the N value of 1334 and 413.
Analysis
1.Compare your estimate of the size of the pasta population with the true size. How close were you?
We counted the real number of the general population as the theoretical value.The formula is shown:
theoretical value - experimental value *100%
theoretical value
={721-[(589+1334+413)/3]}/721
=8%
100%-8%=92%
Therefore we have 92% of accuracy.
2.a) What problems do you think might affect the accuracy of your estimate?
The problems may include the unevenness of mixing pastas, so there would be a large chance that having more or less marked pasta in the second sample population than it should have due to the ratio.So 3 trials may not provide the number fairly enough. Another problem is our group might have dropped some of pasta when grabbing the sample population so it can affect the accuracy of data collected, but this one is the problem that can be avoided.
b)This activity was not completely valid in that the population was non-mobile.What problems might ecologists studying animal populations encounter?
When it comes to the real animal world, the way of marking can be a problem because the animals are able to move under their own wills and try to wash the color or take away other marks. The variables in natural environment are relatively harder to control. For example, there can be natural disasters and diseases. Besides, there will be a problem of mixing if the type of animal is non-mobile because the sample population will basically remain as a population and tend not to mix with the general population.
3.How might you improve your sampling design?
To improve the sampling design, I will add more trials to provide more data in order to minimize the problem of unevenness. The size of the second captured population should be larger to offset the contingency of re-capture.( And the markers should be more suitable for coloring on pasta and more washable on hands.)